Freight 360

How Freight Brokers Quote New Shippers | Episode 281

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🎙 Mastering Freight Rates & Market Trends

Unlock the keys to freight success in this episode! We break down essential strategies for quoting, negotiating, and navigating market shifts in logistics.

🔹 Freight Rate Negotiations – Tips to master the art of pricing and securing the best deals.
🔹 Trucking Capacity & Market Trends – How to interpret heat maps and spot rate trends.
🔹 Economic Impacts – The effects of steel & aluminum tariffs on supply chains.
🔹 Supply Chain Disruptions – How avian flu is affecting the chicken and egg market.
🔹 Operational Strategies – Avoiding “Fallout Friday” cancellations and sourcing trucks efficiently.

Stay ahead in the logistics game with expert insights and actionable takeaways! 🚛📦

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Speaker 1:

Welcome back. We're on episode 281 of the Freight 360 podcast. This is part four in a series we've talked about with prospecting, new business and Ben. Today we're going to pick it up on the quoting process. We were going to try and do this all in one episode and it just started getting really good and we didn't want to skip over anything. So we wanted to give a really good amount of time for each section here. So we're to give a really good amount of time for for each section here. So we're going to pick it back up today.

Speaker 1:

But but first, before we get into it, make sure to check out all of our other content. We've got our full library on Freight360.net. You'll also see us on YouTube and we're growing on all the social media sites. So we appreciate you guys media sites. So we appreciate you guys If you're following us on Instagram, facebook, twitter, x, whatever you want to call it, linkedin. But yeah, share it with your friends. We've got the Freight Broker Basics course as well. If you want an educational option on how to start your brokerage or how to improve your skills and leave us comments, send us an email, send us a message on our website. Ben, what's going on in South Florida today, man, oh you know what. So, before speaking of South Florida, I had no idea that they renamed A1A as Jimmy Buffett Memorial Highway, like late last year.

Speaker 2:

I didn't know that and it's funny because, like, I feel like I would have seen that on local news and I must have just missed it.

Speaker 1:

But yeah, I'm on the road often so I saw a post that like Google is showing the Gulf of America now and I was like there's no way. So I looked up I was like damn, it says Gulf of America on Google now. And then I'm like I'm zooming in and I'm looking around and I'm like why does it say Jimmy Buffett Memorial Highway? And it's like literally so A1A. I believe the section they renamed is the parts in like Key West, miami Lauderdale, boca, palm Beach, fort Pierce, and then it like skips a section. Then it goes up north, like up north towards like Jacksonville and whatnot, but like yeah, pretty cool, it's like hundreds of miles of A1A is now Jimmy Buffett Memorial Highway. I think that's our IP. Missed the guy. Anyway, how's? How's Florida today, man?

Speaker 2:

You got to remind me. Later I will tell you a story about Jimmy Buffett. That definitely isn't something we want to air, but there was a fishing captain people want some juice, man? No, there was a fishing captain we went out with this is 15 years ago and he took them out on a fishing tour the whole band, um, jimmy buffett and them and the stories he told me about what they did after and like the morning when they went to go pick them up were absolutely like bat shit crazy well, what's the nickname for the people that followed him?

Speaker 1:

like parrot heads or something like that?

Speaker 2:

yeah parrot heads. Yeah, yeah, and I went to the restaurant. It's over on the west coast. It's supposedly the restaurant that he named cheeseburger in paradise. After it's on um, I think it's called turtle bay it'll come to me later.

Speaker 2:

The oh cabbage key is the name of the key and there's a restaurant there and they I mean, famously serve cheeseburgers and you can only get to it by boat. It's an island. It's got like a few little cabanas that you can stay in. But the cool part of the restaurant is not only are the burgers banging, but everybody. When you go in, you sign your name to a dollar bill and you tape it to the wall. So the entire inside and the ceiling is just covered in dollar bills and everyone there has a shirt and they donate the money that falls off the wall every year to, I think, some children's charity and it was some crazy number, it was something like I remember like probably like 90 or a hundred or $150,000 a year that falls off the walls that they just pick up and then put in a bucket to donate every year. It's a really cool place.

Speaker 1:

I went to a place in Maui called cheeseburger in paradise. It's unfortunately burned down. Now it was on front street in Lahaina, but uh, no affiliation with Jimmy Buffett from what they told us. So I I don't know, Anyway, good stuff, man.

Speaker 1:

Quick little sports recap of the Super Bowl. Man, that was one of the most, so I wasn't even gonna watch it. And then Josh Allen gets named MVP Thursday night and I was like, all right, feels good, I'll watch the Super Bowl and man I that it just got so fun to watch Watching Kansas City just get absolutely like train wrecked. Like the final score of 40 to 22 doesn't even give it justice. It was 34 to zero at one point.

Speaker 2:

Like I'm pretty sure we were texting each other. I was Googling whitewashes.

Speaker 1:

What's that?

Speaker 2:

We were Googling to see if there was ever a whitewash you know, blowout in any Super Bowl, and I'm like it was unprecedented.

Speaker 1:

Steven jinxed it. He's like hey, siri, has there ever been a shutout in a Super Bowl? And then literally Kansas City starts to put some points up. But anyway, great, great blowout. So all the Eagles fans out there, congratulations. I can finally go back to saying just go, bills, because I don't know. There's something about Philly sports fans that I think a lot of people have a distaste for. No offense, right, philly's got some plenty of championships in that city. So cheers to you, congratulations On to the next. Anything else in sports we're not like weird part of the year that like hockey thing. I don't know if you see like it's. They used to do an all star break and now they're doing this like four nation. It's like Finland, sweden, canada, us, like play a round robin game and it's basically a little mini competition.

Speaker 2:

I heard of it and I heard a bit about it on the radio, but not too much to be able to speak about it.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, my oldest son is getting huge into sports so he wants to watch every possible sporting event on TV. I guess we'll be tuning into some of this hockey stuff in the next couple of weeks.

Speaker 2:

The highlight, I think, of the Super Bowl. My daughter was six, she had the flu and she was really sick sunday. But the best part was she just wanted to lay on the couch and cuddle and watch the super bowl and she just kept asking me so like which team is the steelers and who are the good guys we're rooting for? Like whoa honey. Like the steelers aren't in this game, she's like, well, okay, but like which one are the Steelers?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, yeah, but it was awesome. That's funny, man News tariffs. So make sure you guys sign up for our newsletter Tuesdays and Thursdays. It goes out by the time you guys hear this on Friday.

Speaker 1:

Who knows if this is accurate, but like, there's like literally talk of tariffs on like every country now but like steel and aluminum is like supposed to be starting like now and it's like the, the biggest, uh, like this, the auto manufacturers, like ford, you know they're. They're basically like shouting about this like this is gonna totally disrupt everything. But what are your thoughts? I mean, what are you hearing? Because I mean I feel like every day, every hour of every day, there's a different like headline that comes out about the talk of tariffs and what Trump's saying. I feel like literally our newsletter Tuesday, like everything involved Trump in some way, shape or form in the supply chain. But what are you hearing? What are your thoughts?

Speaker 2:

Honestly, I haven't heard much other than they're proposed and, like in the back of my mind, I'm just thinking, okay, well, this is leverage to try to execute something else, so I'm just kind of waiting for the next piece of information to drop. To be honest, I can't imagine that that goes into effect. I mean, if it does, I feel like it could be catastrophic, because even-.

Speaker 1:

Here's what we had in the, the newsletter. So a lot of the stats showed that with you know, this was kind of leading up to the tariffs is that there was and we all saw this in the in the tail end of last year, in the beginning of this year was like the amount of um inbound, um freight we had from, like, china and and whatnot, uh, boomed ahead of these proposed tariffs. And then we have, let's see, yeah, tariffs effective. Oh, here it is steel and aluminum 25% across the board, effective March 4th. So we're talking in a few weeks from now and you're going to look at inflated costs on those goods. Got inflated costs on those goods. This is similar to what you dealt with, going back to like what 2017? Yeah, 2017. Kind of the same thing. But now, like I heard Stephen says something about the chat here. Let's see here. Yeah, I don't see anything in here.

Speaker 2:

So what I was just pulling up. I was curious what percentage of the steel and aluminum used in US production comes from overseas. Again, this is just from Chad GPT, but it's saying the US imports about 30 percent of its steel. Top suppliers China, mexico, brazil, south Korea and the EU. Canada is the largest supplier, providing about 20% of US steel imports. Aluminum more than 50% of aluminum consumed in the US is imported China, canada the largest, china, uae and Russia. So definitely leverage for sure. Looks like the biggest impact on Canada coming in imports from there.

Speaker 1:

So my biggest thing is how does it affect, like, domestic brokerages? It's probably going to be similar to what you dealt with eight years ago, which is like when, if and when they hit, like is that going to disrupt? Like do people just kind of freeze and say, like who's paying for it?

Speaker 2:

like don't move it yet, like that's what I'm curious on, just kind of that's what I think is going to happen and I think, like, think, like when I heard the auto manufacturers talking about it, talking about chaos that it's causing. I mean, when you think about it from a company's perspective, you've got to plan for both outcomes. Now, right, what happens if this happens and what if it doesn't? On steel and aluminum, are both looking at now, domestic orders, trying to place both orders. Right, what is really difficult to manage a supply chain when you're trying to hedge where you can buy it from and get the best price. So if everybody runs to try to buy what is available domestically either steel or aluminum, one that drives the price up because there's a finite amount of it. Second, if you're trying to also hedge that risk by putting some contracts in with your steel overseas suppliers, they're probably going to charge a premium because they're going to want to be able to get out of that agreement should this come into place. So not only are those things happening, but like they're not going to negotiate the same terms. If you're going to buy steel for me and I'm in whatever Brazil, any other country in the US, I'm going to go. Okay, well, there's a chance you cancel this order, so I'm going to charge you more because of the risk, right, I can't run and produce all this and if you're not going to buy it, I'm stuck with it.

Speaker 2:

And that's kind of where everybody's in this like limbo place where it's going to cause one, a ton of disruption.

Speaker 2:

I think it's going to drive up costs immediately and two like the other big point is and Jason Miller talks about a lot about this it wouldn't happen last time, like we can't produce enough of either of those to fulfill the need, like overnight. And even if we eventually can produce enough one, you've got to hire more people. You've got to train them. You've got to build more manufacturing capacity. You need more raw materials. All those things take time to line up. You can't just flip a switch and have, you know, us steel make 30% or 40% more of any product overnight without more people, labor capabilities and again, where you're getting the raw materials to make this more Coke, more you know I think coal goes into making steel. I definitely know Coke is involved in the process and, like all of the other products that go into it, iron and I can't remember what else goes into steel. But I feel like I should know that, being from pittsburgh either way, we'll see how this unfolds.

Speaker 1:

You're gonna see a ripple effect, but I also wonder, like how much of this is is bark with no bite? You know what I mean. So yeah, we'll see um time will tell the. The chicken and the egg crisis. So they did lift hours of service rules for anyone hauling chickens. So there was like I think there's like three or four states that were like big on it. But I mean, what is it? Is it the? Is there a flu? There was some kind of avian flu.

Speaker 2:

They had to. They had to euthanize a lot of chickens, so there's not enough eggs being produced because there's not enough chickens. And, granted, I think getting the chick, the eggs, from where they're coming from to where they're going faster might improve the situation, but at the end of the day, you need more chickens and to get more eggs you need more chickens, and that takes time, like there's not really a way to expedite the natural process of a chicken growing big enough to lay an egg.

Speaker 1:

We saw this with, like the ports right, they were trying to get the ports uncongested like, just lift the restrictions, just lift the restrictions. It doesn't mean that all of a sudden, like there's going to be an infinite amount of supply of workers to alleviate the congestion of the ports, just like there's not an unlimited supply of drivers and chickens to, you know, alleviate that issue.

Speaker 2:

It takes time to line these things up right and I mean I saw like Costco put a limit on the amount of eggs you can buy. I think I saw on the news Trader Joe's did. And I'm thinking in my head. I'm like are there not eggs when you go to the store? Cause like I haven't gone to a store and not seen eggs at any point in time. They're more expensive, but like are people buying them because they're worried they're just not going to have them?

Speaker 1:

I went shopping last week and plenty of eggs. What was odd, though, is they didn't have any egg whites and they had like a big sign up that said like we're out of stock, we won't have them anytime soon. So I wonder if, like any you know they. I'm curious. Like my thought was okay, I'm assuming companies are probably trying to say we're going to just try to keep as many just standard eggs available and not utilize them for other things like egg whites, egg beat beaters, you know egg products.

Speaker 2:

I don't know, I could be totally wrong, but that's like what my common sense Also heard the waffle house put like a 50 cent upcharge on eggs or something they were talking about in the news.

Speaker 1:

Oh yeah, yeah, I did see that it was like 25 cents or 50 cents, yeah, surcharge. Meanwhile, you can still getzona iced tea for a dollar. So 30 years later, um, and what is? What's the place with the hot dog? That's super cheap, is it costco?

Speaker 2:

yeah, costco hasn't raised the price of all and, to be honest, like I know they're not great for you, but I probably will one of those a week or like every time we go to Costco. Like I really like those hot dogs.

Speaker 1:

Uh, all right, let's talk uh freight here. So we you know the last few um episodes we had. We started off with prospecting and um moved into what are those conversations sound like? What does the followup sound like? And then we moved into how do you actually ask for the business and start having conversations on availability of freight, to bid on when are their needs and whatnot.

Speaker 1:

And now we have to get to the actual technical side of OK, my customer has offered me a load to quote for them. Now what am I supposed to do? How do I find this price? Is there a magic place I can go that just says, oh, here's the rate you should give them, and the short answer is there's not a magic number. But we're going to talk through some practical tools you can use and techniques that will give you a starting point and help you understand and learn what impacts the rate. You know what, you know what are the different things that you can look at and analyze to go back and continue that conversation with your customer. And we're going to try to do some screen sharing today too. So if you, if you guys, do want to see it, you'll have to go over to the YouTube side, but we'll try and expand it as good as possible for those listening just on audio. What do you?

Speaker 2:

got. Here's where I want to start. I want to start by just explaining what happens on every shipping lane every day and what makes up a rate. Right, and we talk about this a lot, but it's important, I think, if we're going to talk about trying to guess what you're going to pay, what actually creates that rate? Right? Yeah, so lots of both participants have access to like that and other rating tools right, both carriers and brokers so you can see a range, right A high, a low and then the median where you are expected to pay with a high probability, right, that doesn't mean that's what you're gonna pay. It is the best guess of what you should pay based on what has happened. But when you're quoting this for tomorrow, what nothing can tell you is what is going to happen between today and tomorrow.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so it's up until this point.

Speaker 2:

We don't know definitively. It is really just the number of loads that are available to be moved on that lane tomorrow and the number of trucks that will be empty and available that can move those loads. When there's more loads than there are trucks, it puts upward pressure on the rates, right, because everybody, there's more people that need a truck than there are trucks. If there are more trucks in that market and a market is defined usually by about 150 miles from where you're picking up and delivering your load so within that circle on a map, it's the number of trucks versus the number of loads that need moved. And here's the thing that I think most people don't really understand.

Speaker 2:

The context of is okay, there's those two variables loads and trucks. But the second is urgency, right, how many of those loads that are scheduled to move tomorrow have to move tomorrow? Because those are the ones that are really going to put the most pressure on the trucks, because some of the loads they can just push until the next day, so they're not going to pay any more than they have to, think a lumber load tomorrow just to move that load, if they can wait till the next day. But think produce, that load's got to pick up tomorrow because it is expected at a grocery store. It has shelf life of only a few days, maybe a week. If it doesn't get picked up tomorrow, some portion of what goes in that truck will expire or will not be as valuable. So those loads have a different impact on rate.

Speaker 1:

And then the trucks that are there right, so you might pay what impacts the truck availability, and then you might have, you might pay a certain-.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I want to talk about what impacts the truck availability. And then you might pay two grand on a load today, but tomorrow there's not as many trucks there. So, like Monday, rates versus a Tuesday can be very different. Because most trucking companies start their weeks on like a Monday. They have scheduled front hauls or they grab loads from brokers that are already planned. They're booked, they go and there's more over the weekend that got empty waiting to be loaded Monday, like again, not every trucking company takes every weekend off, but more of them do than don't. So Mondays there's usually more capacity.

Speaker 2:

Tuesday, most of the trucks that book Monday are trying to book longer miles, so they're still got a load on them going to Wednesday or Thursday right and they're probably not going to be empty the next day in the same market. The trucks that are empty Tuesday usually got empty Monday from like the week before. So there are usually different numbers of trucks on different days of the week based on where you're shipping out of. If you're picking up in Chicago, lots of trucks are delivering into Chicago every day. That doesn't change as much no-transcript.

Speaker 1:

That doesn't change as much. Yeah, your big arteries like that. And when I say arteries, think about like if you think? About the network of highways in the United States. The arteries are the big cities that have a lot of traffic going through them, Right? So if you just look at a map of all the interstates, it's your, Chicago's, Atlanta's, Chattanooga, Denver. What am I missing here? Um pretty much like every major metro area that's somewhat centralized is going to have a lot of stuff coming through it.

Speaker 2:

And then the second thing to keep in mind is, when you look at a map, think of what cities either make or buy. Cities consume lots of things because lots of people live there, but not all city produces a lot of things, right. So some cities are very good, right, but the drivers don't want to deliver there because there's not a lot of loads coming back out. And you can see these things in DAT, like if you look at a heat map and you look at the part where you can see the different regions, they're different colors and if you click on them it'll go from red to blue and if you look at the bottom, it'll show you how many loads versus how many trucks are there.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, we'll show an example of that today too. Right, and you?

Speaker 2:

can almost guarantee that if you're sending a truck into a market or a city where there are more trucks than there are loads, you got to pay more to send them there. Because, guess what, when the guy gets there he's not going to get a great paying load to leave there, so you spend more getting them in. If you send a truck to a tight market meaning less trucks than loads that truck wants to go to that market because he knows he's going to make good money leaving that market. Those are just the fundamental things that determine what you're going to pay on any given day of the week versus the average right.

Speaker 1:

Yep, exactly. So what you just to summarize what you just said, the what impacts the trucking capacity, aka the number of trucks available in a city or in a certain area, is, you know, do they have a lot of stuff delivering there? If so, they're going to have usually a good amount of capacity for outbound freight. Right the time of the week? Right. We talked about the beginning of the work week versus a Friday where a lot of people are really trying to be done for the weekend. Rates on Friday afternoons, generally speaking, will increase throughout the day more like literally like by the 15 to 30 minute interval.

Speaker 1:

Other things that will impact the capacity is think about a holiday or a snowstorm. It doesn't mean that necessarily the number of trucks aren't there. It just means the number of trucks willing to drive is going to decrease. You get a lot of folks that want to take time off around a holiday or don't want to go into a certain area because there's a snowstorm, cannot go into a certain area because of a hurricane or whatever the natural event or disaster is. But these are other things that impact a market in general.

Speaker 2:

Last thing I want to point out.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, go ahead.

Speaker 2:

So we used to call it Fallout Friday. Well, what actually happens? Right? So you book a truck at an average rate at one o'clock in the afternoon on Friday and then at two you get an email and a phone call my truck broke down. I can't pick up that load. Why does that happen so much? Because somebody else posted probably that same load that needs picked up that afternoon for a thousand dollars more than you posted it and the truck goes. You know what? As much as I want to work with you, I'm going to go take the extra thousand dollars, right?

Speaker 2:

So there's a higher likelihood you get a truck that drops your load in the afternoon on a Friday for a better paying load. That is probably maybe more urgent than yours. You got a customer that's like I can't pay any more than the average rate Friday afternoon. There's a pretty high likelihood that that truck cancels on you to grab a better paying load. So, again, like you said, like the capacity gets absorbed throughout the day, so in the afternoon there's less trucks and the trucks that play that game there's a risk to it. They're like hey, I'm not booking a load until three in the afternoon on Friday to see if I can gamble and get a really high paying load to make it worth my while this weekend. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't, but that is the game and that's what happens on like a micro basis, right you negotiating with a trucking company versus another one, them negotiating with you as a broker versus another broker.

Speaker 1:

So we have an example I'm going to. We're going to look through three different tools here and we're going to use the DAT platform. We know there's a lot of pricing tools out there. Dat is obviously a preferred partner of ours and that's what I use every single day. So that's what we're going to show. But we're going to look at the truck postings in a certain lane, we're going to look at the market conditions in a certain lane and we're going to look at the rate view, which is their rating tool, in that lane as well. So the lane I picked was and we could switch it if you think it's not a great pick but I picked Buffalo to Indianapolis reefer. How's that sound All?

Speaker 2:

right so.

Speaker 1:

I'm going to go ahead. I already I got to refresh here because I could see some of these trucks were already falling out. But I'm going to share my screen here and I'll try to explain it for those that are just listening. But if I go to D18-1. All right. So on here. This is a standard truck search and what we're looking at here is I've got Buffalo to Indianapolis reefer and if you want to add in here, you can put in your weight, the length of the vehicle, you could pick your radius around those as well what this is showing us. Do you have something to add in Ben?

Speaker 2:

Yes, because I see lots of people running into issues with the top part. You want the widest net possible, and what do I mean by that? You want the least amount of variables, because every time you put something in there, it is going to eliminate the trucks posted that don't meet that right. So I never put length in, I never put weight in. Make sure you check the date and make sure you check the deadhead from origin and the deadhead from destination. I did this with somebody yesterday. They're like dude, I'm not seeing the same trucks as you, and I looked and they put the length in and I'm like well, you put 53. Do you need a 53? And they're like well, not necessarily. I'm like well, then you just eliminated all the 48 foot trucks that are posted up here, right? Yep, trucks that are posted up here, right. So you want the least amount of fields filled out to get the largest number of trucks to show you yes and then.

Speaker 1:

So what you'll see here is the results I've got for this specific one. We've got 52 results that match our exact search, and then you'll see an additional 264 similar, and we've got these ranked by age. So this is when these trucks were posted. Ok, so if I did want to call a carrier and start to talk to them about this load, I can see when they posted their truck available, the date that their truck is available In this case it's today what their location is. So in this case this says Rochester, new York, that's, 75 miles away from Buffalo, and they're willing to go anywhere. All right, sometimes they'll Buffalo and they're willing to go anywhere. All right, sometimes they'll post certain states they're trying to go to, like you'll see, this one says they'll go to Illinois, indiana or Indiana or Indiana, michigan, minnesota, north Dakota.

Speaker 2:

Wisconsin. Here's a point Before you go past that, what I want everyone else to know is the trucking companies do the same thing, meaning many of them will post anywhere but they're not really willing to go anywhere Right, and you'll learn that when you start talking to them. But they want to field the most calls to find the best option, right. That does not always mean they are willing to go anywhere, and it means the other thing of. When you see different zones, it does not mean they are only willing to go to that zone because you might have a better paying load and they're willing to go somewhere else. So take that with like, as they say, like a grain of salt. Like that is not gospel and these uh zones.

Speaker 1:

By the way, um, correct me if I'm wrong it's the starting digit of the zip code, right? So, like, zone zero is every zip code that starts with zero, and they're they're fairly regional, so that's why you see zero, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven here. So that's pretty much excluding the West portion of the United States. All right, so again, this is just the truck. I'm searching trucks here. So what am I seeing here? I'm only seeing a trucking company that has decided to post their truck as available on the load boards, right, and you'll see it's updating live right now. Here's another one that just popped up right now, but as I scroll down and I get past that one out, go up because I want you to point out, there's something that's really interesting about using Buffalo, right.

Speaker 2:

So the Toronto one wants to go where Nate wants to go, so does the Brampton Ontario, right. But you can almost guarantee by looking at that if they want to pick up in Toronto they're probably a Canadian carrier and I can tell by the ON next to the phone number that they are. That carrier could not pick up the load from Buffalo to Indianapolis. A Canadian carrier can only pick up a load in Canada and deliver to the US.

Speaker 1:

Yep. Other option would be if well, no, that's correct. Yeah, cabotage rules there. Good point, all right. So as I scroll down here, we'll see our similar results. If I toggle this on now, I've got these are going to be outside of my radius, typically, right, so you can see, here I've got some carriers that are showing as 200 or more miles away from where I'm at. So I've got Greenberg, greensburg, pennsylvania, twinsburg, ohio. So, yeah, you're looking at more of a deadhead here, but this gives you a general idea of the amount of trucks that are posted for that specific area.

Speaker 1:

I've got a snapshot of the DAT median rate from it's usually yesterday and it's showing 11.07, so 220 a mile Tri-haul, which we won't really get into today, and then market conditions, which we can click on and lane makers. Those are some additional tools that DAT has, depending on the package you've got. What I want to switch over to now is the. I want to show the, the market conditions and then rate view. So let me go ahead and stop sharing that and I will go ahead and share the market conditions, and this is exactly what you were referring to earlier. Ok, so in here, market conditions, I've got Buffalo to Indianapolis, buffalo outbound, indy, inbound and reefer for both.

Speaker 1:

All right, and we're looking at the prior business day for data here and this is that color map that you were referring to. So on the left side of my screen here and I'll try to explain it for those that are just listening, we've got all this data that you mentioned before, ben. We're looking at the Buffalo market specifically. So if I look at the map, it is shaded, it's kind of hard to see here. I'll try to zoom in, but it pretty much consists of all of Western New York down to the Pennsylvania border and it ends at the Canadian border and it says here it's plus 30. So DAT specifically uses a minus 100 through a plus 100 scale.

Speaker 1:

Negative numbers mean it's a looser market. Positive numbers mean it's a tighter market. The higher or the further away from zero that you are, the more you are either tight or loose. Ok, so this is at plus 30, slightly tight market, it's calling it. And as you turn red, that's tighter, as you turn blue, that's looser markets.

Speaker 1:

Now what we're seeing here is load to truck ratio. So L slash T ratio is 7.3. And what this says is there are 200, and this is again yesterday. 263 loads were posted and only 36 trucks were posted 7.3. Now, does that mean that there's literally 7.3 trucks for every, or load for every truck that's available? No, that's just what's been posted.

Speaker 1:

Now think about it. If I'm a trucking company, my truck gets posted once, right? There's really not any reason. Besides, if you have multiple dispatchers advertising your equipment, there's really not a whole lot of reason for your truck to be posted more than one time in a market. But why would loads be posted more than once? Well, you might have 10 different brokers all posting the exact same load trying to find capacity for it. Right, and that's why you'll very often, almost always, have a very inflated load to truck ratio and DAT and these other tools out there. They understand that and that's why it's saying it's slightly tight, even though it's saying, hey, there's seven loads for every truck in this market. We're going to call that slightly tight because we understand how the posting metrics work right.

Speaker 2:

It also works the other way in the sense that, like there are probably quite a few trucks that are available there and the dispatcher just doesn't want to field calls because there's enough loads for him to call out on and to choose from right, so you will often see the truck number lower than the available trucks actually there because the dispatcher just I don't want every broker in the world from all 263 loads calling me about my truck. I'll just call the loads outbound and pick the ones I want to choose from. So you will usually see a deflated truck number and an inflated load number.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's exactly right. I don't know the exact stat. We talked about it on an episode with a guest a couple of years ago, but it was like at that time. I think it was like two years ago, but at that time it was roughly, I think, like 50 percent of all trucking capacity just not being posted on here because they're probably calling their broker directly or a shipper directly or any other method in there. Now, the opposite side of the screen here is our inbound Indianapolis market, also slightly tight at plus 17. And again, we've got our load to truck ratio at 6.8. We're showing 975 loads to 143 trucks.

Speaker 1:

So one of the things I learned early on was you know, when you look at, when you try to understand your negotiation position as a freight broker I always like to look at the outbound and the inbound conditions and how do they balance out. So if I have um, loose and loose, well I probably have the upper hand because there's not a lot of freight for the amount of trucks that are there. If it's tight and tight, well I'm going to have to, you know, really work to find a truck, because there are. You know it's a tight market, there's more freight than trucks. So my negotiation position is a bit weaker than the other one. If it's flip-flop, if one's loose and one's tight, it's fairly moderate, and that's when you can really get into what matters to that driver specifically compared to just what do the markets look like? Do you have anything you want to add in on that?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I just have a little bit of a different perspective. If I see Buffalo is loose and Indianapolis is tight, it's a pretty easy load to cover because there's a lot of trucks in Buffalo to choose from and most of them will be willing to go to Indianapolis because they'll make a lot of money in a tight market.

Speaker 1:

So I'm looking at Indy inbound right now versus oh, okay. Yeah, if I switch to Indianapolis outbound, it's very, very, very tight. Right so yeah, you're correct on that.

Speaker 1:

And that's why that's. Another good thing to point out here is you know, look at the inbound versus the outbound. So Indy, outbound is a plus 99, which clearly means a driver going to Indianapolis knows they're going to get a very competitive rate when they leave Indianapolis, depending on where they're going. But you know it's very tight. So that's one reason to you know, it's a good discussion point for a driver If they don't have all these tools in front of them, which a lot of them don't, especially like an owner operator like hey, you know, indy is super tight up on right now. Here's, you know, where are you looking to go next I can take a look at what some of those rates are for you. These are great discussion points. All right, now I want to look at we'll flip over to rate view here. Yeah, hop off of this one.

Speaker 1:

Rate view is one that I really love and we have a full episode on. I think it was Tamir Dove from DAT and he breaks down where all the data from RateView comes from. I'm pretty sure he built the algorithm he was like the head guy on it but I'll try to summarize it without getting too in the weeds here. But basically, what you have access to on. A lot of these rating tools is historical data and it depends on what sources they come from. In DAT's case they're looking at. They have some shippers that provide data periodically. They have brokers and carriers that provide data and you know it's not fully disclosed who it is or when it is Factoring companies too.

Speaker 2:

I think they get.

Speaker 1:

Factoring companies as well, yep.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

So these are. This is actual data. This, I think they get Factoring companies as well. Yep, yeah, so these are. This is actual data. This is what someone actually paid to haul this load, and they'll break it down between a broker to a carrier or a shipper to a carrier contracted.

Speaker 2:

And I want to explain for everybody what does that mean? Right? So that means like, just for an example, this is not all of them, but like maybe the largest brokerages, like CH, all of them, but like maybe the largest brokerages like CH Robinson and TQL. Like their deal with that is they send their rate data to DAT, right, but it's anomalized, so it doesn't have the trucking company or the customer number name.

Speaker 1:

It has where it came from, where it went and what was the commodity.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, yeah. And sometimes maybe the commodity where, like that, data gets ingested by DAT. Same with the factoring companies, same with large trucking companies and same with shippers. So, like the larger companies have an agreement where they share the data back with DAT, that they use it and then they can provide better info back out. Green screens does this on like a per brokerage basis, like if you had an account with green screens. The one thing that's nice about that that I like is it takes your company's pay history on that load and will give you two numbers this is what you're likely to pay on this lane and this is what everyone else is based on, what your load history is. But to everyone out there, like Nate said, this is all normalized data that comes from all of the major sources you can get it from at the largest scale, and then they take off the top 25 and bottom 25 of the median.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, so great point. So what we're looking at here and I'll describe it for those listening is I'm looking at broker to carrier spot, including fuel. What does that mean? That means this is data that is a freight broker paying a motor carrier with fuel included in it. So if you're trying to quote your customer, just line haul, and they have a fuel surcharge, you need to remove fuel from that equation before you quote them.

Speaker 1:

But most customers are looking for a spot quote. They're looking for an all in rate. And so for this case, buffalo to Indy, reefer 1107. So one thousand one hundred and seven dollars, that's our median. That's the 50th percentile, meaning that half the rates are above that and half the rates are below that. And now you'll see a range below that. So 1107 is our median.

Speaker 1:

Now I've got a range of 996 to 1222. That's our 25th to 75th percentile. So we're only capturing half the data here. The most expensive 25% and the cheapest 25% are not in this range. So you know, what you can tell here is you get a rough idea of what the market was yesterday and that gives you a good starting point. And I want to remind people that this is not guaranteed because, remember, half of the data is not included in this range here. So if I got someone who, like you know, really wants this lane and I'm willing to my customers willing to wait a couple of days, I can probably get below that 996. But it's not going to be. If it's urgent and it's got to go today and it's a high priority, well I'm probably going to be at the higher end or above that. So keep in mind this is not like pure gold. Just because it says it on DAT means it's going to be that rate Right and here's two examples.

Speaker 2:

One is think about the Friday we talked about earlier. If that lane is you know, I can't see it Was it 1100? Yeah, 1107, right. So say you need to cover this load and your shipper has an order that came in last minute between three o'clock and five o'clock on a Friday, and it has to get picked up no matter what. And the customer goes look, it doesn't matter what the cost is Like, I have to get this order out. Okay, you might pay $2,500 for that lane.

Speaker 2:

Under those circumstances, again, you're going to pay way above the 1100 because there might be two empty trucks willing to go to Indianapolis in that two-hour window that are close enough to pick up, that can make that delivery. So why DAT doesn't include that is because that doesn't really help you price that load next week. And also, if you added that $2,500 rate that you paid on that very specific circumstance, it's going to move the whole median up and change everyone's pricing for Monday. So they eliminate the top crazy prices and the bottom low crazy prices. And I asked GPT, I was like, hey, can you explain this to a third grader? And they said sure, imagine 100 friends all operate a lemonade stand. Well, you're going to have some kids that give away lemonade for free, which is a zero, and some that charge $100 for a cup of lemonade. You don't want those included in a way to predict the price, because the zeros bring the number way down and the $100 brings them way up and they might sell. One kid might give away a lot for free. One kid might sell one cup for $100 because his grandma's in town, right, and just wants to. You know, just be nice.

Speaker 2:

But that doesn't help you predict what everyone is likely to pay at all of the lemonade stands if they just showed up, right. So you chop off the top outliers and the bottom outliers. That gives you a better idea of what you're likely to pay to your point under normal circumstances, right, and we always said like you get a rate or a date, like if I've got to move it on your time frame, on that date I am going to pay the most likely price that everyone else is. If I can move that a few days and wait for the better truck that needs that load, I can likely pay below it, right? So the time has a very big impact on what you're likely to pay as well and when in the day you cover this thing.

Speaker 2:

At eight in the morning you might get a cheaper truck that wants to get moving very quickly because they need to get there. You covered in the afternoon. There might be a few trucks that are still empty and they might be willing to wait to the next day, so they're not going to take a lower rate. So where in the day you book the load is also going to determine where you fall in this range. It's not just going to be same price at eight in the morning as three in the afternoon to move this load.

Speaker 1:

So and this is a great point to talk about with your customer is, while you know they say, hey, you know what, can you find out for a rate on this? I can go back to the customer and say, hey, I talked to a driver, it looks like it's going to be, and I'll just you know, we'll say I'm adding a margin on here. I could say it looks like if you need to picked up this afternoon, I could probably get it done for, you know, $1,300. I talked to a driver that's going to be empty and available to pick up this afternoon. Um, and If you you know how urgent is this, can you give me a couple of days Because I might be out?

Speaker 1:

It looks like, based on the markets, they're a little bit tight, but not terrible. I might be able to keep digging for you and try to get something a little bit cheaper for you, maybe closer to 11 or 1200. If you can give me a couple of days here to work on this and see if I can find it as a backhaul for somebody. Right, and that's why you said you can get a rate or a date. Right, if you want the competitive rate, well, you can't tell me it has to pick up right now, right, exactly, if you tell. Do I say to talk to them more to get them?

Speaker 2:

to get used to being like my friend and to trust me and to be like a colleague that values us communicating right? These are the best opportunities to pick up the phone and call your customer Soon, as I'm getting a request from a new prospect. I'm picking up the phone and having the conversation you just said and I say the same thing, right? Hey, what is your lead time? When does this need to go? What is the urgency? To either get it picked up or get it delivered? Sometimes a product needs to be there, sometimes they need to get it off their dock. So, okay, are either of these things true? Does it need to get out today or does it need to get delivered on a certain day? And I wait to hear what they say. And then the second thing I say is exactly what Nate said. I go listen and I love this technique. I learned this early on.

Speaker 2:

Is I give them a range on the phone? It's really hard to give someone a range in an email because they go well, what the hell is this Like? I'm going to pay between $1,100 and $1,350. Like, what does that mean? You need to be able to provide the information as to why that range exists, which only is really effective on the phone, and that's literally what I'm going to say is all right, hey, jimmy, look, I mean like looks like average right around here is I'm going to be like I don't know, probably like around $1,200. If I've got a day or two to find the right carrier for this load like, I could probably get you closer to the $1,200 range. Maybe I get lucky and get you a little below it. If I got to move this in the next hour or two, I might be at like 1400. So I'm guessing we're probably between 12 and 1400, based on what you need.

Speaker 2:

And then the beauty of that is I make him make that decision. I'm not telling you what I'm charging you. I'm giving you a choice of two different options. If you want it cheaper, you've got to give me some time. If you want me to move it, on your timeframe this is where you're probably going to fall and I might be like I might get lucky. But like to be honest, this is most realistic.

Speaker 2:

Now, not only is he getting valuable information, which is helpful in building trust and rapport, but two, I didn't make this choice for him. You made the choice. You tell me what you want to do, because our job is to access the market, not to move it, not to manipulate it, not to beat a truck down. It is to make your customer decide what is more important the date or the price. Because everyone always asks this oh, all my customers only care about being cheap. Well, have you ever gone on the phone and made them make the choice? I always visualize it as the fork in the road and a sales closing call. Right, these are your two choices. You got one or two. Where do you want me to go with this right Now, all of a sudden, I'm not making the decision for them and even if I don't get the load, I provided valuable insight. They're going to trust me more and they know that I'm not trying to manipulate them Like this is just the reality and I'm providing good market insight back to them.

Speaker 1:

For sure. Right Now I want to point off on the left side of my screen here and I'll explain this for those listening we can play around with the data we're looking at here too, right? So what DAT usually does by default is it gets as pinpoint accurate as possible. So in this case it's pulling only data from the last seven days and it's looking at a the market level Right, you can get as fine-tuned as a three-digit zip code for some larger markets, or I can even zoom out to a large-sized market or region to try and pull more data, and that's more common if you have a kind of a more rural location. And I can also extend my timeframe out here beyond seven days, up to 15 or 30 or whatnot. And as I scroll down, I can also see I'm going back a full year here. Right, I could see how this has changed throughout the year.

Speaker 1:

Now, remember, this includes fuel. So we're looking at the cost of fuel impact in this as well as the market in general impacting that. So you see a trend here. Where it was, it was, it's about where it was a year ago and it dipped. It slowly dipped down towards the summer months and it raised back up as we got into the winter months. Ok, the reasons for that.

Speaker 1:

Again, it includes fuel. It includes just the general, the general. You know truck availability A lot of times when you get to colder areas that have winter weather and the same thing happens with produce season in Florida you'll see those fluctuations and rates throughout the year, based on who wants to go where and how much demand. Excuse me, how much demand is there for freight to be shipped throughout certain times of the year, based on who wants to go where and how much demand? Excuse me, how much demand is there for freight to be shipped throughout certain times of the year? Right, but we're looking at today, the last seven days in this situation, and there's even a rate cast tool, if you have.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, iq rate view and let's show them.

Speaker 1:

This is just a quick snapshot at it and let's show them that this is just a quick snapshot at it. This is DAT predicting what the next eight days or the next 52 weeks, so the next year, will look like for this exact market. Now where does this data come from? It's a guess, but based on their statistics, this rate cast number is up to a year out. It has a 95% accuracy rate of and what we're looking at is not that the number is going to be exact, but that the number they're predicting will fall somewhere within that 25th to 75th percentile. They've got a 95% accuracy. So, again, a lot of fluctuation in there and a lot of these ranges are very large. So keep that in mind. But it gives you a general idea of what is this market predicted to do in the coming week and in the coming year. So the week it's fairly flat. But if I look at the next year, I've got it's expected again to dip down towards the summer months and then pick back up as we head into winter. So it's kind of going to. It's expected to do something similar to what it did the last year. So that's our rate view portion here. So I will I'll turn off the the sharing of the screen on this one, but as you can see, here, a lot goes into where this price comes from. Right, We've looked at the data, so what our trucks be and how many trucks are being posted.

Speaker 1:

We looked at the market conditions. Is it tight, Is it loose, Is it neutral? What is the load-to-truck ratio outbound for that market Rating? Right, what does the historical rate span? What do predictive future rates look like?

Speaker 1:

And then you could take all of that and now you've got the last piece of this is well, think about each specific driver, right? If I'm a driver and I have a reefer and I'm in Buffalo, just because rate view says this number, does that mean that I you know, I'm willing to go to haul for that number? If I don't want to go to Indy, I'll very like. If I, if I live in, you know, South Carolina and I want to go south, Well, you're going to have to pay me more. If you want me to go to Indianapolis, right, that's not where I'm trying to go, so you got to entice me. If I live in Indy and I really want to get back, well, if there's a you know, not a ton of freight going that way and I want that load, I'm probably going to offer to do it for the low end of that spectrum. That's where all this stuff comes into play.

Speaker 2:

So let's pull. Can you pull up the screen where the posted trucks are, Cause I wanted to show some people this too, right, and some things that you can use to, I guess, make better guesses, make better, okay, so let me refresh it here. The first thing I want to point out right is it's Wednesday when we're recording this, right. So that lane to their mileage, wise, I'm guessing is about a three-day transit, am I about right? What's the mileage on that?

Speaker 1:

um 600 miles.

Speaker 2:

I had it pulled up let's see here 220 a mile, 1100 bucks, so it's probably half that, a little less.

Speaker 1:

So it's probably like 500 miles right, I think tri-hall will actually tell you the mileage on it yeah, 50, 503. 503.

Speaker 2:

Okay, so that's a one-day transit right. It's Wednesday, meaning they're probably running Monday to Friday. So if this lane was on a Thursday, I would be looking for every carrier that has an I and an N next to it, meaning they're domiciled in Indiana, because the likelihood is, if this loads on Thursday, that gets them home for the weekend on Friday. Those are my best shots at the trucks. I'm going to call first Right.

Speaker 1:

So looking at where you can actually sort by home state. So if I, if I switch this and I'm like all right, let me look at Illinois, no Indiana, but I mean Illinois, you're. You're right next to it.

Speaker 2:

So now scroll all the way down to the similar results. The other thing I want to show people is how do you incorporate deadhead in what you're expected to pay if you've got to quote a customer? Let me go back. So let's say you picked a lane and the results at the top show zero, like there's literally not a truck within 150 miles. So then you go down and the closest truck, let's say, is just stop right there, it's fine. Say, the closest truck is 213 miles and Conklin, new York, right, what can you expect to have to pay that guy to still pick this load up? Right? Rough math 223 miles times a $2 and20 a mile. I got to pay him about an extra $400 to deadhead him into Buffalo and then to go to Indianapolis. So if I expected to pay $1,100, I'm going to expect to pay that carrier, right, and Conklin, new York, about $1,500 for it to be worth his while. And again, from the trucking company's point of view, he's going to get loaded miles paid for driving empty. So deadheading from Conklin over to Buffalo is in his favor, right, because he's empty. He's getting loaded rate per mile 220 a mile. It makes sense for him to drive to Buffalo right Now that's the rough math on.

Speaker 2:

If your customer calls you, goes well, what would it cost to get a truck? If I need this picked up today and your only option is 200 miles away? That's a rough way to tell your customer like I'm probably going to be like between 15 and 1800 to get a truck into market to pick up today. And, by the way, 200 miles, call it 50 miles per hour. Right, it's going to take four and a half hours to get them there too, so you've got to factor in the time.

Speaker 2:

But that's how, when you're really good at sourcing capacity, right Is you've got to be able to look at how do I get a truck into the market If there isn't one, you're loading in a city and some very rural area where the closest truck is 220 miles away. This is how you do that rough math and the pricing to get a general idea of what you're looking to pay. And the last thing I want to add to that is the thing I've always noticed in practice is, even if you pay that guy that loaded miles for driving empty, very few drivers want to go in one direction and then the other. So meaning if that load is in pittsburgh, I could probably get a guy from buffalo to deadhead to pittsburgh to go to indianapolis because it's on the way. What is for some reason very difficult is to get a driver say he's in baltimore or say he's in west virginia, to get him to go north to pittsburgh and then to go back south indianapolis yeah, there's a.

Speaker 2:

Psychologically am I going backwards I'm going backwards and I'm like, well, hey, like we're paying you loaded miles, just think of it as a one pick, two drop without the second drop in it. Right, like, yeah, even when you're trying to explain this, drivers, for whatever reason, like to kind of move in the same direction. So when you are posting loads, to get carriers to call you and say you've got a load picking up in a very rural area in West Virginia, go to Indianapolis. I might post that load in Pittsburgh, because then it's pretty likely I can get a driver to call me that wants to go to Indianapolis and all I've got to do is pay him the mileage to drive to West Virginia first and then to go to Indianapolis. Just think map, drop a ruler on where you're picking them going and then keep going in that direction to the next major city. That's the next closest, easiest way to find a truck to bring them into market.

Speaker 1:

The last thing I want to mention here before I wrap this up is keep in mind we don't control the market and our job as a freight broker is to give our customers options and access to the market. Right, we're not saying, hey, I'm the one controlling this rate, what I can like. When we gave the example of, hey, you know, I can do this, I can either do this, you know, in the next few days for 1200, or if you need it done today, it's probably gonna be closer to 1400,. Right, two options. You make the decision. It's access to the market. We're not controlling the market, we're not manipulating the market. So just keep that in mind. And when you talk to your customer and you have the mindset of I'm just delivering the message to you, right, I'm helping explain it to you. I'm delivering the message, I'm communicating it to you. It's not me deciding it. You're the one that's going to decide which option. It's not my right. Correct, exactly.

Speaker 1:

Anything on this.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I would say two things. One is like I really like the analogy of like the stock market, Like if you were a stock broker and somebody and Apple was trading for whatever $20 a share or whatever and somebody goes well, I want to buy Apple at $18 a share. There is nothing you're going to do to be able to make that happen, right? You're just going to communicate well, hey, this is where the market price is, Maybe tomorrow it'll drop lower and I can try to buy it cheaper tomorrow. It's the same scenario You're accessing the available trucks and rates that are there.

Speaker 1:

You're not ever controlling it or influencing it, which, by the way, is why it's so ridiculous that there's an argument that brokers are somehow influencing the market because it is supply and demand, the real estate market is a really good analogy because if you think about, like, how many houses are available in in the city you want to live in, it's more specifically the town, more specifically the neighborhood or the street Right. The more a pick you get, the you know the less options you're going to have Right Versus how many people are trying to buy a house Right. And then you get a range and you get negotiation and all that stuff. So if it's really important for someone to live, you know, within 10 minutes of their parents for childcare, they're probably willing to pay more than the next bidder who's like nah, I like the house, but you know I'm not. I don't need to live on that street. And that's exactly how the trucking market operates as well.

Speaker 2:

And one more right. Like a family, like my family, the main reason we wanted to move in the house we did is because it's in the school district that my daughter needs to go to, or that we want her to go to, and it's a very high priority for us. If there's another couple that has no kids and they can choose from my house or one literally two miles up the road in a different school district, they're not going to pay more for this house than I am. I am willing to pay more because it's more important to me with what I need, same as a shipment. If that load is, again, I just use produce because it's an easy one to visualize. If that load has to go today, for whatever reason, right, like I'm going to be willing to pay more for a truck than a guy that's got a load of bricks that can pick up tomorrow, friday or Saturday, right, they're not going to influence the market as much as the needs of the people whose loads need to go. Right, exactly For sure.

Speaker 1:

Very good, that's, that's your. You know where the quoting part comes from. What we didn't talk about it, well, you kind of hinted at it with. You know, using, using your own data. If you work at a larger brokerage that has data in your TMS, I find that to be some of the best Right, because you're looking at cares that already have a relationship with you. They've hauled for you in the past. Here's what we paid this trucking company the last 20 times they ran this lane Um, that's a way more accurate number zoomed in on your company specifically, and the most accurate rate you can get is a driver telling you on the phone right now Um, you know the price, right, that's just. I mean, that's a truck in hand right there, so, um, good stuff, man.

Speaker 2:

Two things I think maybe we do next episode on actually negotiating from both points of view a trucking company and a brokerage and I think we could also do another one on doing RFPs, because they're very different than quoting spot rates, and I think it's worth us doing an episode on how you do a bid, how you look at contract versus spot, how you factor in fuel and what that process looks like. We can run some. I have some pretty good models I've built out now off of rate cast based on what we were talking about offline, with different margin columns, different ways to factor it in, medians versus average. And I think, again, we should for sure do an episode on like actually negotiating with a trucking company, where they're going to start, what they expect, what it looks like from a broker and, if you're a carrier, how and what you can do to negotiate better rates with brokers.

Speaker 1:

I think we do both sides. Let us know what you guys think too. Do you like the screen sharing? Do you like the topics and the upcoming ones? Let us know, we appreciate it. Any final thoughts, ben?

Speaker 2:

Whether you believe you can or believe you can't, you're right.

Speaker 1:

And until next time go Bills.

People on this episode

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Benjamin Kowalski

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Nate Cross

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